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July 2010 For purposes of this discussion we are concerned about the real estate market in Wisconsin's Great Northwoods, specifically the Counties of Vilas, Oneida, and Iron, and the counties contiguous to them. Our market is subject to the same influences of interest rates and the strength of the over-all economy as any real estate market. However, locally, additional factors come into play -- such as the fact that we are very much a second home (vacation home and investment property) market, the fact that we experienced a decade long period of phenomenal price appreciation, and the influence of supply in the equation -- developers nor anyone else has the ability to create new northwoods lakes in the same manner that new housing subdivisions may be created elsewhere. These simple facts work for us and against us. | Here is my “take” on the local market: • We are in the fifth year of a market “correction” that has created a strong buyer’s market. • Our market peaked in 2005, but it was 2008 before sellers finally begain to "get it." In 2009 sellers were more flexible during negotiations than in any other time in the last 10 years. Sellers (the successful ones) have continued that trend into 2010. • However, there remains a large group of (unmotivated) sellers that are willing to wait for the market to turn in their favor. Their properties have been on the market for several years with no reductions in list price. They have waited over 4 years and are willing to wait longer if need be. • Market inventory is high and it is difficult for a seller to get his or her property to stand out except via asking price. • Perhaps because of the high inventory, many potential buyers are not very motivated, either. They feel that they have plenty of time to make a decision. The stability of interest rates may play into this, also. Potential buyers may also lack the "confidence" to act on their desire to purchase due to their concerns about our economy's health and how it may impact on their own personal situation. • Mortgage underwriting standards were tightened in the wake of the sub-prime fiasco but credit remains available at near historically low rates. • Unlike in the past, vacant residential lake lots have been a hard sell the last few years. Buyers seem more interested in improved properties. Several possibilities for this -- 1. Most of the good lots have already been taken, and the remaining prime ones are very expensive -- 2. Not so much speculation in the market; buyers are buying to hold and use for themselves. However, this segment of the market may be rejuvenating -- starting this spring I am seeing more interest in vacant (lake) lots again. • 2010 so far is proving to be a welcome improvement over the last several years in terms of customer inquires, showings, offers presented, and sales. One truly encouraging aspect is that a large proportion of our new buyer contacts are just starting to look for property of their own in the Northwoods -- not potential buyers that have looked off and on for years. To me this indicates that our market is continuing to attract new customers. Concerning sales activity, for some time now it has been in the $250,000 and down range, with the occasional sale over $400K. Sales of high-end properties have become almost non-existant, but many of these properties have been getting a lot of looks lately, with a few sales occuring and more likely to occur in the near future among the properties that have had their prices reduced to more realistic levels. • Even with all this change, some things haven't changed -- credit remains available for mortgages, and it still remains a great time to buy. This is the state of our market boiled down into one four points: Large inventory, seller flexibility, low interest rates, buyer opportunities. To summarize: For buyers, the time to buy is now. The smart buyer is on the leading edge of the trend, not the one running with the masses who missed the prime buying opportunity. For sellers, yes, you can sell your home or other property. |
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Vilas County, WIThe statistics below provide information on the number of home sales and median sales price over a period of time. If no housing statistics are listed here, then information is currently not available for this county. | Number of Home Sales | | | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Year End | | 1997 | 43 | 125 | 194 | 129 | 491 | | 1999 | 65 | 122 | 165 | 140 | 492 | | 2000 | 66 | 0 | 145 | | | | 2001 | 24 | 111 | 161 | 96 | 392 | | 2002 | 42 | 142 | 194 | 128 | | | 2003 | 71 | 140 | 203 | 138 | 528 | | 2004 | 71 | 147 | 199 | 142 | 559 | | 2005 | 143 | 255 | 345 | 244 | 987 | | 2006 | 131 | 233 | 269 | 209 | 842 | | 2007 | 123 | 208 | 253 | 152 | 736 | | 2008 | 72 | 115 | 134 | 109 | 430 | | 2009 | 37 | 90 | 138 | 91 | 356 |
| Median Price | | | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Year End | | 1997 | $77,500 | $107,800 | $112,900 | $100,800 | $103,000 | | 1999 | $84,800 | $93,200 | $130,500 | $136,500 | $100,000 | | 2000 | $125,000 | $ | $153,100 | $ | $ | | 2001 | $180,000 | $142,200 | $145,000 | $175,600 | $151,100 | | 2002 | $174,700 | $150,000 | $166,700 | $170,000 | $ | | 2003 | $150,000 | $148,900 | $182,200 | $205,000 | $175,000 | | 2004 | $186,700 | $177,800 | $216,700 | $200,000 | $196,000 | | 2005 | $113,300 | $120,000 | $166,700 | $172,000 | $150,000 | | 2006 | $112,000 | $137,500 | $153,300 | $162,900 | $145,000 | | 2007 | $153,300 | $140,000 | $175,000 | $137,100 | $150,000 | | 2008 | $100,000 | $105,000 | $113,300 | $140,000 | $120,000 | | 2009 | $252,100 | $124,300 | $133,300 | $179,900 | $175,000 |
Iron County, WIThe statistics below provide information on the number of home sales and median sales price over a period of time. If no housing statistics are listed here, then information is currently not available for this county. | Number of Home Sales | | | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Year End | | 2001 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 6 | 39 | | 2002 | 13 | 22 | 15 | 21 | | | 2003 | 9 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 73 | | 2004 | 13 | 15 | 20 | 19 | 67 | | 2005 | | | 55 | 53 | 108 | | 2006 | 32 | 43 | 47 | 41 | 163 | | 2007 | 24 | 34 | 31 | 33 | 122 | | 2008 | 11 | 29 | 39 | 22 | 101 | | 2009 | 7 | 15 | 27 | 16 | 65 |
| Median Price | | | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Year End | | 2001 | $310,000 | $390,000 | $135,000 | $180,000 | $130,000 | | 2002 | $150,000 | $110,000 | $104,600 | $107,400 | $ | | 2003 | $ | $110,000 | $150,000 | $190,000 | $148,000 | | 2004 | $85,000 | $173,900 | $180,000 | $170,000 | $168,300 | | 2005 | $ | $ | $68,600 | $61,200 | $65,000 | | 2006 | $270,000 | $67,500 | $110,000 | $98,000 | $90,000 | | 2007 | $80,000 | $83,300 | $124,000 | $77,100 | $86,700 | | 2008 | $75,000 | $55,000 | $65,000 | $60,000 | $60,000 | | 2009 | $ | $184,600 | $55,000 | $156,000 | $140,450 |
In the News "Interest in Vacation Homes Warming Up"
Copley News Service (04/26/09) Woodard, Jim
With vacation-home prices on the decline, more people are entering the market. The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) says the median vacation-property price has fallen to $150,000 from $195,000 in 2007 and $204,000 in 2004. Survey data shows that 34 percent of vacation-home buyers snap up units within 100 miles of their primary residence, and more buyers are purchasing manufactured dwellings for vacation properties because they are up to 50 percent less expensive than site-built homes. According to NAR senior public affairs specialist Walter Molony, "The long-term underlying demand is favorable for vacation homes because of the large number of middle-age and middle-income Americans that buy these properties."
"REALTORS® Urging Hike in Conventional Loan Limits"
Palm Beach Post (FL) (06/21/09) Ostrowski, Jeff
Lenders have ceased originating jumbo loans in recent years, which is why housing activity is centered on low-cost homes. The National Association of REALTORS® believes the non-existent jumbo mortgage market is responsible for weakness in high-end housing; and it wants Congress to boost the conforming loan limit to $729,500 in pricey housing markets. Lenders have fled the jumbo loan market due to the lack of securitization, and Bankrate.com says the spread between conventional and jumbo loans has reached 1.79 percent in 2009. According to NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, "REALTORS® are saying their clients just don't want to enter the market because they feel cheated. They say, 'I have high income, I have good credit -- why is everybody else paying less than I am?'" "US: Update Existing Home Sales"
FXStreet.com (10/26/09)
Sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose to a rate of 5.57 million units in September from 5.09 million in August as more first-time buyers used a tax credit to purchase homes, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The fifth increase in existing homes sales over the past six months helped bring the number of homes on the market down to 3.63 million from 3.92 million. The current sales pace means that it now will take 7.8 months to sell all of those homes, compared to 9.3 months in August. Also, the average home price fell 1.2 percent to $219,800. | |
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