On March 4th, 2009, the Greater Northwoods Multiple Listing Service had 2,143 listings for single family (detached) homes. In the previous 12 months, 1,207 homes and cottages fitting this classification sold. This is a market absorption rate of 100 homes per month over the preceeding 12 months. With 2,143 homes presently listed, it would take approximately 21 months to sell all of them at that calculated rate of absorption.
How about lakefront homes? Of the 2,143 homes, 858 are listed as lake homes. 366 sold in the 12 month period preceeding today. That is an average market absorption rate of 30.5 homes/month. With 858 listed, they could all (statistically, speaking) be sold in a little over 28 months. Another way of looking at this would be to say that, in regards to homes and cottages, we have a 2 year supply.
Often trends are more important than absolute numbers. The trend lines for the average market absorption rates for all homes and also for lake homes have been trending downward, but not as fast as you may believe. For instance, in November the 12 month average market absorption rate was 105 homes/month, and today it is 100 homes/month. For lake homes, the numbers are 32 in November vs. 30.5 today. Certainly, the trend is downward, but only slightly over the last year or so.
What has dropped considerably is the number of months supply of homes. For example, the months of supply of lake homes has dropped from about 36 months last fall to 28 months today. The reason for this is that the number of lake homes listed has dropped from well over 1,000 last fall to 858 today. This is not uncommon; many sellers allow their listings to expire over the winter with the intention of relisting in the spring.
If you would like to see similar statistics for property in a certain geographical area, or for a different classification of property (such as lake lots), just let me know.