As graphical representation of data for a post on my Northwoods real estate outlook for 2010 earlier this month, I charted 4th quarter closings of the sale of single family homes in the years 2006-2009. This chart represented closings throughout the entire Greater Northwoods Multiple Listing Service. If one attempts to do this type of thing, one must choose a large enough geographical area to ensure that there will be enough data points to provide useful information, even more so if one is interested in trend information.
I tried a similar approach while limiting myself to western Vilas and eastern Iron Counties, specifically the communities of Manitowish Waters, Mercer, Winchester, Presque Isle, Boulder Junction, Lac du Flambeau, Oma, and Sherman. I have charted the sales in units of single family homes and sales in units of all types of listed real estate by month for the 4th quarter of each year from 2006 through 2009. The number of units for each category and time period is not huge, but I think large enough that we can learn something from the effort. Without further ado,
(If the green lines seems a bit sketchy, it is because I drew it in freehand -- I couldn't figure out how to make the program do it for me. Y-axis is units. X-axis is year. All means all types of real estate; SF means single family residences.)
Points I wish to emphasize:
The trend line is up for the 4th quarter of 2009, units are similar to 2007.
Single family home sales in units approached 2006, which was well before anyone realized what was coming (though we should have.)
From 2006 to 2008 the green lines are converging, which, in this instance, means that single family home sales were becoming a greater and greater portion of total sales in units; i.e., buyers were purchasing more improved properties and fewer vacant lots, relatively speaking. In 2009, the lines started diverging again, meaning more vacant parcels and fewer improved properties, relatively speaking. Part of the effect is due to the finalization in December of the sale of a number of vacant lots in Manitowish Waters that were
auctioned off in November following a foreclosure.
Nation-wide the implementation and extension of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit had a large impact on the increase in home sales. I don't believe that had anything to do with the upturn experienced in our local market.